6 Days

With the countdown now at 6 days, I guess it’s about time I break down my run predictions.

First, I have to put out the disclaimer that this won’t be pretty. This is the leg that separates the strong from the weak, and I definitely plan to associate with the latter group while I’m out there. Even on the greatest days, pros come in just above the 3 hour mark while most age group athletes clock times well over the four to four and a half hour marathon marks. So needless to say, as a first-timer, I have no disillusions of running a quality marathon.

Right above 10 minute miles would be best case scenario (and almost impossible for me). 11 minute miles are more doable but still a stretch. And somewhere in between 12-13 minute miles is both realistic and acceptable. I know, it seems pretty slow, and it definitely is, but I just don’t think I can expect much more since I’ve only been endurance racing for one year.

So after a combination of legs that will feel like bricks, inevitable nutrition/bowel problems (gross, I know), and amateurish mental toughness, I expect to fall somewhere around these times:

Start Run: 2:42pm
Finish Half Marathon: 5:10pm
Finish Marathon/Race: 7:45pm (10:45pm Eastern Time)

OK, so this time breakdown might be a little ambitious. A 12:45 finish time for my first Ironman would be beyond incredible. Hell, any finish time with a 12 in front of it and I’ll be more excited than Augustus Gloop when he won a golden ticket. Realistically though, I expect a dozen things to go wrong and I’ll be very happy with a finish time in the 13’s or even the very low 14’s.